Throw successfully on first down. Houston finished the regular season tied for the league lead in rushing attempts, and posted a 35:20 run-to-pass ratio in the Wild Card round. The Ravens will expect the run. The Texans can gain a step on Baltimore by using play-action fakes to set up early-down passing plays, be it of the deep variety to Andre Johnson and Jacoby Jones, or higher-percentage crossers to possession receiver Kevin Walter. It will be important for T.J. Yates to establish rhythm and confidence early on. This projects as perhaps the closest of this weekend's Divisional round affairs, and the Texans won't topple teams tougher than the Bengals without an extended period of strong performance from their rookie quarterback.
Ravens Must: Delete Houston's running game. This is where Baltimore's first-round bye will come in particularly handy. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis got a week off to rest his ailing toe, an injury that has affected both his performance and availability since Week 10. Run-stopping LE Cory Redding (ankle), ILB Dannell Ellerbe (head), and DT Arthur Jones (illness) are all recovered from late-year injuries. The Ravens fielded the AFC's toughest regular-season run defense and are now at full strength. It's an intimidating development for Wild Card round star Arian Foster, who was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries and held out of the end zone in Houston's Week 6 regular-season meeting with these same Ravens. Despite Foster's mammoth statistical line against the Bengals, he also appeared to be a step slower than usual in terms of acceleration.
X-Factor: Anquan Boldin. Boldin played the first 14 games with a torn meniscus, missing the final two after December 22 surgery. This week, Boldin declared himself the healthiest he's been all year. During the aforementioned Week 6 meeting with Houston, Boldin abused Texans top corner Johnathan Joseph for 132 yards on a season-high eight catches as Joseph shadowed him throughout the game. Boldin's return makes the Ravens' passing attack considerably more dangerous because his physicality creates mismatches in the slot while deep threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans man the outside. The Texans will likely focus their defensive efforts on stopping Ray Rice and Baltimore's ground game, so the wideouts should all see plenty of single coverage.
Why the Ravens Will Win: Beating the Bengals in Week 17 was crucial for Baltimore because it bought them much-needed time. Team leader Lewis will have his legs back after the playoff bye, and a healthy Boldin appears to have Joseph's number. The Texans' offensive staff will likely do what it can to relieve any and all pressure from Yates, but I'm betting against a rookie quarterback visiting the Ravens far more often than not. If the Texans do pull the upset -- they're 7.5-point dogs -- it will be because Yates had easily the best game of his young pro career.
Ravens Must: Delete Houston's running game. This is where Baltimore's first-round bye will come in particularly handy. Middle linebacker Ray Lewis got a week off to rest his ailing toe, an injury that has affected both his performance and availability since Week 10. Run-stopping LE Cory Redding (ankle), ILB Dannell Ellerbe (head), and DT Arthur Jones (illness) are all recovered from late-year injuries. The Ravens fielded the AFC's toughest regular-season run defense and are now at full strength. It's an intimidating development for Wild Card round star Arian Foster, who was limited to 49 yards on 15 carries and held out of the end zone in Houston's Week 6 regular-season meeting with these same Ravens. Despite Foster's mammoth statistical line against the Bengals, he also appeared to be a step slower than usual in terms of acceleration.
X-Factor: Anquan Boldin. Boldin played the first 14 games with a torn meniscus, missing the final two after December 22 surgery. This week, Boldin declared himself the healthiest he's been all year. During the aforementioned Week 6 meeting with Houston, Boldin abused Texans top corner Johnathan Joseph for 132 yards on a season-high eight catches as Joseph shadowed him throughout the game. Boldin's return makes the Ravens' passing attack considerably more dangerous because his physicality creates mismatches in the slot while deep threats Torrey Smith and Lee Evans man the outside. The Texans will likely focus their defensive efforts on stopping Ray Rice and Baltimore's ground game, so the wideouts should all see plenty of single coverage.
Why the Ravens Will Win: Beating the Bengals in Week 17 was crucial for Baltimore because it bought them much-needed time. Team leader Lewis will have his legs back after the playoff bye, and a healthy Boldin appears to have Joseph's number. The Texans' offensive staff will likely do what it can to relieve any and all pressure from Yates, but I'm betting against a rookie quarterback visiting the Ravens far more often than not. If the Texans do pull the upset -- they're 7.5-point dogs -- it will be because Yates had easily the best game of his young pro career.
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